Insider Trading Investigation Dashboard

Political Donation & Insider Trade Correlation Analysis
Generated: July 27, 2026  |  Sources: SEC EDGAR Form 4, FEC OpenFEC API, Capitol Trades Data: Jun 15, 2024 → Jul 23, 2026
Overview All Suspects Crypto & Digital STOCK Act Donors Timeline Cases Liquidations Stories Iran War Intel Kalshi Markets Published in VELOCITY Open Investigations Influence Orbit Detention Inc. Venezuela Oil About
ORBIT

Influence Orbit — Big Tech / Big Law / AI & Crypto

Mapping the intersection of Big Tech, AI Policy, and the law firms that act as conduits for both influence and information. Threshold for this group: $10,000+ trades. Data harvest pending — run commands below to populate.

ORBIT 1 — AI & CRYPTO
GENIUS Act / World Liberty Financial
IndividualRoleLaw Firm
Elon MuskTesla/xAI/DOGEQuinn Emanuel
Sam AltmanOpenAI CEOLatham & Watkins
David SacksAI/Crypto Czar
Marc Andreessena16z GPGunderson Dettmer
Ben Horowitza16z GPGunderson Dettmer
Brian ArmstrongCoinbase CEOFenwick & West
ORBIT 2 — DEFENSE & INTELLIGENCE
$2.1B Palantir Iran Theater Contract
IndividualRoleLaw Firm
Alex KarpPalantir CEOSusman Godfrey
Peter ThielFounders Fund / PLTRSkadden Arps
Palmer LuckeyAnduril FounderSkadden Arps
Trae StephensAnduril / Founders FundWiley Rein
ORBIT 3 — JUDICIAL & ADMINISTRATION
SCOTUS Pipeline / "Generally Met" Disclosures
IndividualRoleLaw Firm
Jane Sullivan RobertsLegal Recruiter (Roberts spouse)Major, Lindsey & Africa
Leonard LeoFederalist Society / Marble Freedom TrustJones Day / Consovoy McCarthy
Dan ScavinoWH Deputy Chief of Staff
Pam BondiAttorney General
Watch: Kirkland & Ellis Appellate Group · Sullivan & Cromwell (financial reg) · Consovoy McCarthy (constitutional)
ORBIT 4 — RECIPROCAL TARIFF LITIGANTS
Liberation Day $2.4T Crash Correlations
Watch these firms for partner-level donations or stock sales within 48hrs of Liberation Day (Apr 2, 2025):
Sidley Austin · Crowell & Moring · Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld · Steptoe & Johnson
Cross-ref partner trades with Major, Lindsey & Africa placements same quarter = cluster signal.
ORBIT 5 — CFTC / PREDICTION MARKETS
Casino Part Two: The Regulator Was In On It
Law firm connections confirmed via NYT CFTC investigation (May 21–22, 2026) and SEC filings
FirmEntityConnection / FEC Hit
Gibson DunnPolymarketConfirmed outside counsel. BOUTROUS, THEODORE: $55,700 donated 1d before Hormuz escalation. POLLACK, JOHN: $70,000 5d before Hormuz closure extended.
Gibson DunnGoogle / AndurilSHARF, JESSE: $25,000 1d before Anduril $22B DoD contract. BATTS, EDWARD: $15,000 4d before DOJ drops Google antitrust. CLUSTER FLAGS
Gibson DunnSpaceX IPO ★ DUAL ENTRYFIRST CONNECTED HERE · June 1, 2026 — IPO counsel of record, Houston office (S-1 confirmed May 20 2026, CIK 0001181412). Same firm as Polymarket outside counsel (Casino series). One firm: largest IPO in history ($1.75T SPCX) AND prediction market generating federal criminal cases. House Oversight Comer records deadline June 5 passed — no public release confirmed. CATASTROPHIC ORBIT FLAG
Cantor FitzgeraldSPCX / Cipher Mining ★ DUAL ENTRYFIRST CONNECTED HERE · June 1, 2026 — SPCX co-manager underwriter. IPO PRICED June 11 at $135/sh — $75B raised, $1.77T valuation. Begins trading June 12. Peak: $225.64 (June 16). Howard Lutnick = Commerce Secretary. Commerce/BIS issues SpaceX dual-use export licenses (Starlink, launch). Brandon Lutnick = 1,723 donor correlations in dashboard. Cantor Fitzgerald connected to Cipher Mining $14.236M Treasury bond event (16/20). Commerce Secretary's family firm co-underwrote $75B IPO. That is not a conflict of interest. That is the business model. HIGH ORBIT FLAG
SPCX Post-IPOCrash + Cursor + xAIUPDATE · June 22, 2026 — SpaceX stock -16.4% on June 22 (biggest single-day drop since IPO), triggered by SEC filing for $20B+ senior unsecured bond offering — investors questioned why the largest equity raise in history ($85.7B) was insufficient. Peak-to-June-22 wipeout: ~$600B market cap. June 16: SpaceX acquired Cursor (AI coding startup) for $60B all-stock. All 11 original xAI co-founders departed by May 2026; Reid Hoffman called xAI “a complete train wreck” and SpaceX “a premium-priced CoreWeave.” NYU Prof. Damodaran valued SPCX equity ~28% below IPO; called $26T AI TAM claim in S-1 “a hallucination.” Musk net worth: Bloomberg/Forbes ~$946–951B as of June 21 — no longer a trillionaire. UPDATE June 30, 2026: Musk regained trillionaire status — net worth surged +$62.3B in single day (SPCX +7.6%, TSLA +8.6%) driven by Trump Accounts stock-donation discussions (SpaceX reconciliation signal) and Musk confirmed at Xi Jinping White House summit (Sept 24). xAI structural problems unchanged: $4.9B FY2025 net loss, all 11 co-founders departed, Moody’s/Fitch near-junk bond ratings. xAI net losses: $4.9B FY2025; $4.28B Q1 2026. Sources: TheStreet · TechCrunch · Bloomberg Billionaires · Fortune/Benzinga (Hoffman) · Semafor (June 29, Trump Accounts).
Grimes County TXTerafab Pre-PositionPRE-VOTE · May 27, 2026 — WIT TECH LLC (documents signed by Jared Birchall, who manages Musk family office Excession LLC) purchased six parcels in Grimes County TX including a Navasota River pump station and a one-acre parcel consisting of the river itself — critical water infrastructure for semiconductor fab cooling. Purchase date: May 27. County vote: June 4. One week gap. Grimes County commissioners voted 4–1 to approve 100% property tax abatement for SpaceX Terafab ($55B semiconductor chip facility). Water acquisition before vote = control of prerequisite infrastructure before public approval process. Sources: KBTX (June 26, 2026) · Houston Public Media · Data Center Dynamics.
AnthropicSpaceX Colossus Compute / Competing IPO ★ NEWFIRST CONNECTED HERE · June 1, 2026 — Anthropic files confidential S-1 June 1, 2026. $1.25B/month Colossus compute lease (SpaceX S-1 Note 18): 220,000+ NVIDIA GPUs, Colossus 1 and 2, Memphis. 90-day termination clause either party. Musk characterized arrangement as “military strategic reserve.” Two competing IPOs: SpaceX controls compute infrastructure of Anthropic. DOGE federal AI procurement visibility simultaneous with Musk’s SpaceX competing for same contracts. Quinn Emanuel = Musk personal counsel; Gibson Dunn = SpaceX corporate IPO counsel — two-firm split signals distinct personal liability exposure. CATASTROPHIC ORBIT FLAG
Willkie FarrPolymarket CLO pipelineNeal Kumar (Polymarket CLO) from Willkie Farr. GOTTLIEB, MICHAEL: $12,500 15d before AI chip export EO.
A&O ShearmanKuCoinConfirmed defense counsel — KuCoin CFTC $500K + DOJ $300M settlement (2024). Rescan needed (API timeout).
Sullivan & CromwellCFTC crypto defenseMajor CFTC crypto enforcement defense practice. Already tracked.
Steptoe & JohnsonCFTC regulatoryMajor CFTC regulatory advisory. 7 hits near policy events in current scan.
Source: Blood Money: The Casino, Part Two →  ·  NYT CFTC investigation May 21–22, 2026
ORBIT 6 — RARE EARTH / GREENLAND
The Forever Clause: CRML, REalloys, Tanbreez
Law firm connections confirmed via SEC EDGAR CORRESP filings and prospectus documents
FirmEntityConnection / FEC Hit
White & CaseCRML (Critical Metals)Confirmed U.S. securities counsel — SEC CORRESP 2024–2026 (Jason A. Rocha, Houston). CRML holds 92.5% Tanbreez deposit, Greenland. DUFNER, DANIEL: $50,000 3d before Burr stock event.
Paul HastingsREalloys (ALOY)Confirmed underwriters' counsel — ALOY prospectus. REalloys: DLA $1.7M Terves contract, Kasper advisory board, 15-yr offtake signed May 21, 2026.
Kirkland & EllisChina rare earth clusterLEVY, JENNIFER (attorney): $10,000 donated 0 days before China Rare Earth Export Controls (Oct 1, 2025). Score 420 — highest in dataset. CLUSTER FLAG
Goodwin Procter LLPMP Materials Corp. (MP)CONFIRMED OUTSIDE COUNSEL — S-8 Exhibit 5.1, Feb 26 2026. Washington DC office. Registered 3,547,152 shares under MP Materials 2020 Stock Incentive Plan — the share pool being liquidated by Litinsky (top entry 27/20 under the July 18 2026 detector build; $97.1M total Jan–Jun 2026 sales), Rosenthal COO (16/20, $962K May 20), and Hoops CFO (~$2.2M, 5 tranches). Rosenthal pre-policy Aug 29 2025 sale ($10.8M) preceded China REE export controls by 41 days. All named MP Materials executives: net sell position during Iran conflict window. Goodwin Procter holds legal opinion covering the pool they are selling. CLUSTER FLAG — executive liquidation into war window under counsel-covered plan
Crowell & MoringDOD contractsMajor government contracts practice. Cross-ref DLA Terves LLC contract period (March 2026).
Wiley ReinDefense trade lawGovernment contracts / trade law. Cross-ref Kasper SGE period and REalloys advisory appointment.
Source: The Forever Clause →  ·  SEC EDGAR CORRESP: CRML/White & Case (2024–2026)  ·  ALOY prospectus/Paul Hastings  ·  FEC orbit scan
ORBIT 7

SpaceX S-1 — Board Network & Self-Dealing Map

SEC S-1 filed 2026-05-20 · CIK 1181412 · Accession 0001628280-26-036936

SpaceX filed its S-1 on May 20, 2026. 2025 revenue: $18.67B. Operating loss: -$2.59B. Board appointed Feb 2026 (Ehrenpreis, Glein) — same month xAI merged into SpaceX (Feb 2, 2026). Source: public SEC EDGAR filing. All figures from audited consolidated financial statements.

NameRoleOther AffiliationsBoard SinceConflicts / Flags
Elon Musk CEO / CTO / Chairman Tesla (CEO) · Neuralink · Boring Company · X/xAI (merged Feb 2026) May 2002 SEC SETTLEMENT $20M civil penalty (2018 Tesla tweet). xAI CEO + SpaceX CEO during merger — self-approval conflict.
Gwynne Shotwell President / COO / Director Polaris Inc. (board) · Northwestern Univ. trustees Mar 2009 Attorney-in-fact for Musk and Johnsen per S-1 signature page. Signs all SEC filings.
Bret Johnsen CFO USC Trustee · Previously Broadcom VP/Controller · Mindspeed CFO Signs all SEC filings with Shotwell per power of attorney.
Ira Ehrenpreis Director Tesla board · DBL Partners (founder/managing member) · Stanford Precourt Energy Feb 2026 DUAL BOARD On Tesla board while SpaceX buys $637M from Tesla (2025). Ehrenpreis joined SpaceX board same month xAI merged.
Randy Glein Director DFJ Growth (co-founder/managing partner) · Previously FeedBurner CFO (acq. Google) · Hughes Space / DIRECTV Feb 2026 (observer 2009) Board observer 17 years before formal appointment. DFJ Growth invests in 100+ growth-stage tech companies — undisclosed SpaceX-adjacent portfolio possible.
Antonio J. Gracias Director Valor Management LLC (CEO/CIO, $55B AUM) · Neuralink board (May 2026) · Boring Company board (May 2026) · Prev. Tesla Lead Independent Director 2007–2021 Oct 2010 SELF-DEALING Valor Equity Partners (Gracias's firm) leased AI hardware to CTC (xAI/SpaceX sub). Resulted in $4.507B in debt ($455M current + $4.052B long-term) on SpaceX balance sheet + $66M interest (2025). Failed sale-leaseback per auditors.
Donald Harrison Director Google LLC President, Global Partnerships & Corp Dev · Reliance Jio board (India's largest telecom) Feb 2015 COMPETITOR CONFLICT Active Google executive on SpaceX board. Google Cloud and Starlink compete in broadband/cloud. Harrison leads Google partnership/M&A strategy = access to SpaceX competitive intelligence.
Steve Jurvetson Director Future Ventures (co-founder) · The Metals Company (board) · Prev. DFJ managing director · Prev. Tesla board 2009–2020 · D-Wave investor Mar 2009 Future Ventures actively deploying VC while holding SpaceX board access = information asymmetry in space/tech sector.
Luke Nosek Director Gigafund (co-founder/managing partner) · Founders Fund GP (2006–2017) · PayPal co-founder (with Musk) · Last Energy (nuclear SMR) · Prev. DeepMind board Jul 2008 THIEL NETWORK Founders Fund = Peter Thiel / Palantir nexus (see ORBIT 2). Gigafund is dedicated SpaceX investment vehicle. Nosek manages fund while sitting on SpaceX board.
1B SHARES — MARS COLONY CLAUSE
Jan 13, 2026: Board approved 1,000,000,000 Class B shares to Musk
Vest only upon: (1) 15 market cap tranches ($500B → multi-trillion) AND (2) permanent human colony on Mars with ≥1 million inhabitants. Both conditions required per tranche. Milestones adjusted when xAI merged Feb 2, 2026.
TESLA SELF-DEALING — $637M
SpaceX buys from Tesla while Ehrenpreis sits on both boards
2025: $506M Megapacks + $131M Cybertrucks at MSRP from Tesla → SpaceX PP&E. 2024: $191M Megapacks. Musk is CEO of both. Ehrenpreis on both boards. Confirmed in Note 18.
MUSK $1.42B PRE-IPO STOCK PURCHASE
Musk trust bought $1,421M of SpaceX common stock from employees (2025)
Elon Musk, through his trust, purchased $1.421B of common stock from current and former SpaceX employees in 2025 — before S-1 filing. Price not disclosed in Note 18. Pre-IPO pricing advantage undisclosed.
GRACIAS / VALOR — $4.507B CONFLICT
Board member's firm holds $4.5B claim on SpaceX via failed leaseback
Oct–Nov 2025: Valor Equity Partners (Gracias) leased AI hardware to CTC (xAI/SpaceX sub). Auditors: failed sale-leaseback → $455M current + $4.052B long-term debt. $66M interest 2025. Gracias joined Neuralink + Boring Company boards May 2026 — same month as S-1.
Source: SpaceX S-1 · SEC EDGAR CIK 1181412 · Filed 2026-05-20 · Accession 0001628280-26-036936 · Note 18 (Related Party Transactions) · Executive Compensation section · Board of Directors section
ORBIT 8

Powerus / Aureus Greenway Holdings — Trump Sons Drone War Orbit

FIRST CONNECTED HERE · June 9, 2026

Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. invested in Powerus via American Venture Partners (March 2026) — reverse merger with Florida golf course holding company Aureus Greenway Holdings. Air Force Guardian-2 limited procurement contract placed April 30, 2026. Contract value undisclosed. No competitive bid documented. Powerus-Swarmer MOU integrates Ukraine combat-tested swarm software (Erik Prince, Non-Exec Chairman). June 9, 2026: Iranian Shahed drone ($35K) destroys U.S. Army Apache AH-64 ($33M). 1,000:1 cost ratio. Source: The Drone Monopoly →

Entity / IndividualRoleConnectionFlags
Eric TrumpInvestor — American Venture PartnersCap table: Powerus/Aureus Greenway Holdings (reverse merger, March 2026). Son of sitting president who controls drone procurement timeline.ETHICS · FARA
Donald Trump Jr.Investor — American Venture PartnersCap table: Powerus/Aureus Greenway Holdings. Also adviser to Kalshi and Polymarket (1789 Capital). Son of president who delayed direct Ukraine drone transfer.ETHICS · KALSHI CONFLICT
Erik PrinceSwarmer Non-Executive ChairmanSwarmer (Ukraine drone software, 100K+ combat missions, Nasdaq IPO +700%). Swarmer-Powerus MOU: integrate Ukrainian swarm software with Powerus air/maritime platforms. Joined board February 2026 — same month Iran war began.BLACKWATER NETWORK
Powerus LLCDrone Manufacturer — Guardian-2 interceptorWest Palm Beach; founded by former Army Special Operations veterans. Air Force limited procurement order April 30, 2026 (value undisclosed). Guardian-2 = counter-drone interceptor against Shahed-class targets.NO COMPETITIVE BID DOCUMENTED
Aureus Greenway HoldingsReverse merger vehicle (golf courses)Florida golf course holding company. Nasdaq-listed shell used to take Powerus public via reverse merger. Golf courses near Orlando cited as drone testing grounds. Dominari Securities (Trump Tower) = transaction financial advisor.TRUMP TOWER FINTECH
Korea Corporate Governance Improvement Fund$50M investor in Powerus$50M backing of Powerus. South Korean capital funding the Trump sons' drone interceptor company during an active war the president controls.FOREIGN CAPITAL
SwarmerUkraine swarm software — Nasdaq IPO +700%100,000+ real-world Ukrainian combat missions. MOU with Powerus to integrate Ukrainian swarm AI with Trump family drone platform. The Ukraine drone pipeline the government delayed — now running through the family.UKRAINE PIPELINE · CONFLICT
Open Questions — STOCK Act · FARA · Ethics: Contract value? Competitive bid? Trump sons' current stake valuation? Pentagon communications with sons re: procurement timelines? Who signed the limited procurement order? Powerus-Swarmer MOU and Ukrainian export restrictions?
Sources: Bloomberg (Apr 30, 2026) · PBS NewsHour (Apr 3, 2026) · The Hill (Mar 12, 2026) · CBS News (Mar 18, 2026) · NYT/WSJ (Jun 9, 2026) · Richard Painter/CBS News · The Drone Monopoly dispatch →
ORBIT 9

Kushner / Witkoff — Iran Deal Financial Architecture Confirmed

CONFIRMED JUNE 11, 2026

The 14-point Iran MOU framework was transmitted via Pakistan. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff confirmed as simultaneous Iran + Cuba negotiators. Witkoff visited Oak Ridge National Laboratory June 5 — the US nuclear enrichment facility. Pakistan listed among confirming parties in June 11 deal announcement. Trump announced deal "pretty much all wrapped up" at 2:55 PM June 11 — same day SpaceX IPO priced at $135/sh. Dow surged 930 points within 40 minutes.

Individual / EntityRoleConnection / Flag
Jared KushnerIran + Cuba simultaneous negotiator. Affinity Partners ($2B Saudi AUM)Pakistan back-channel confirmed. Affinity Partners: $2B from Saudi PIF (MBS). UAE/Gulf SWF positioning in USD1/SpaceX. Witkoff/Kushner designed $300B Iran reconstruction fund (NYT confirmed). 90-day commercial clock: Cuba window to Aug 14 + Iran financial settlement architecture. FOREIGN CAPITAL · NO DIVESTITURE
Steve WitkoffSpecial Envoy — Iran, Russia, Middle EastOak Ridge National Laboratory visit June 5, 2026 — US nuclear enrichment facility. Witkoff holds real estate portfolio with active Gulf investor relationships. Simultaneous Iran + Russia + Cuba negotiating role. ETHICS — NO DIVESTITURE
Pakistan ISI / Government
Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir
Back-channel broker14-point MOU framework transmitted via Pakistan. Araghchi → Pakistan first (June 7 confirmed). Pakistan listed in June 11 announcement. USD1 Pakistan signed as Hormuz transit currency. Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir is the operational counterpart, not just PM Sharif — Vance: "I have probably talked to Field Marshal Munir more than I have talked to anybody else over the last three months."
USD1 / WLFISettlement currency candidate22.5B tokens. UAE 49% stake. Pakistan signed. GENIUS Act provides statutory basis. Trump family $2.3B crypto gain (Reuters confirmed). Financial settlement annex not yet public. Watch European signing ceremony — what currency are frozen assets denominated in?
QatarParallel back-channel + $24B/$12B frozen asset route + Venezuela oil conduitQatar SWF: equity in SpaceX IPO. $24B frozen Iranian assets routed via Qatar (simultaneous with Pakistan channel); $12B release split $6B/$6B finalized in Switzerland. Now also the conduit for Venezuela oil revenue under EO 14373. Qatar = structural match for USD1 settlement conduit. Venezuela Oil →
Watch — September 24, 2026: Xi Jinping at the White House. China holds ~$40B in frozen Iranian assets. Panama ports deal ($23B CK Hutchison) in Chinese antitrust review. Chip export relief. Taiwan posture. The June 11 announcement is Chapter One. September 24 is the real closing.
Sources: NYT (Witkoff/Kushner $300B reconstruction fund) · Reuters (USD1 $2.3B Trump family gain) · New York Post (Trump "pretty much all wrapped up" June 11, 2:55 PM) · Pakistan MOU transmission (AP, June 11) · The Old Goat Was Right →
ORBIT 10

Live Options Cluster — PLTR June 12 / OXY June 18 / CVX June 18

SCAN DATE: June 11, 2026 — EXPIRES TOMORROW

Options scan June 11: 2,486 flagged contracts across Defense, Energy, Tanker. PLTR straddle on June 12 expiry — same day SpaceX SPCX begins trading (Luke Nosek on both PLTR board via Founders Fund/Thiel network AND SpaceX board). OXY $37.5 calls: 1,093× VOL/OI with near-zero open interest. CVX $145c June 18: 72.5×. HAL $20c: IV=339%. All scored PRE_MILITARY_0d against Pentagon IG Minab school report deadline (June 11–12).

TickerContractVolumeVOL/OIIVScoreFlag
OXY$37.5c Jun189,8401,093×229%7.0NEAR-ZERO OI · HIGH_IV
CVX$145c Jun188,33372.5×116%7.0LARGE_VOL · PRE_MILITARY
OXY$42.5c Jun186,564298×185%7.0NEAR-ZERO OI · HIGH_IV
PLTR$135c Jun12 ⚡11,3342.8×63%6.0EXPIRES JUNE 12 — SPCX IPO DAY
PLTR$128p Jun12 ⚡10,6592.3×60%6.0STRADDLE — THIEL NETWORK
HAL$20c Jun182,4507.5×339%6.0EXTREME_IV · HAL=Halliburton
RTX$135c Jun182,02133.7×156%6.0HIGH_IV · DEFENSE
PLTR Connection: Luke Nosek (SpaceX board director, July 2008) is a Founders Fund GP — Peter Thiel's fund which holds Palantir equity. PLTR June 12 straddle = massive options positioning expiring the same day SPCX begins trading. Nosek sits on both boards simultaneously. Thiel is outside government — no STOCK Act, no Form 4 required. Pattern only visible via options flow + board cross-reference.

OXY Context: Iran deal announced June 11. Crude fell 4.2%. OXY calls at $37.5 (1,093× VOL/OI) with near-zero OI = almost entirely new positioning opened June 11. If OXY falls further on peace deal repricing, these deep ITM calls become directional bets on recovery. Cross-reference against John Hess $109M discretionary CVX sales (no 10b5-1) and Casino Part Three oil shorts series.

AXON Pattern (June 29, 2026): Trump disclosed $1–5M AXON purchase Feb 10 in Q1 OGE 278 filing. ICE posted $220M Taser contract solicitation Feb 24 — 14 days later; specs effectively exclude rivals. AXON insiders sold $60M in 2026: $6.5M in February (after ICE notice), $7.2M March, $42.8M in June. Top sellers: Isner ($19.7M), Smith ($15.2M), Bagley ($10.9M). Presidential buy → contract announcement → insider liquidation. CNBC: no evidence Trump knew of procurement in advance. Source: CNBC June 29 2026 · OGE 278 Q1 2026 · SEC Form 4 EDGAR.
Source: options_summary.json scan date 2026-06-11 · unusual_options.csv · Iran Tab → · Kalshi → · Suspects →
ORBIT 11

Kazakhstan Tungsten — Trump Sons + Lutnick Sons Critical Minerals Empire

NYT Investigation · June 28, 2026

NYT investigation (Paul Sonne + Eric Lipton, June 28 2026): Trump administration used national-security critical minerals rationale to steer federal financing to a Kazakhstan tungsten project where Trump sons and Lutnick sons hold financial stakes. Commerce Secretary Lutnick facilitated. One firm — Dominari Securities (Trump Tower) — appears in both the drone deal (Orbit 8, Powerus reverse merger) and the Kazakhstan tungsten deal. 14 Trump-Lutnick connected companies actively receiving federal critical minerals support.

Individual / EntityRoleConnectionFlag
Donald Trump Jr. Investor via Dominari Securities 20% stake in Kaz Resources Kazakhstan tungsten project. Dominari Securities (Trump Tower) = financial advisor on deal. Also: Powerus drone (Orbit 8), Kalshi/Polymarket adviser (1789 Capital). EMOLUMENTS · ETHICS
Eric Trump Investor via Dominari Securities 20% stake in Kaz Resources alongside Don Jr. Also: American Bitcoin CSO, ALT5/WLFI, Powerus drone. Son of president who controls Commerce, BIS, and critical minerals financing. ETHICS · FARA
Howard Lutnick Commerce Secretary Facilitated September 2025 meeting between Commerce and Kazakhstan President Tokayev. Commerce/BIS controls critical minerals export licenses. Signed off on up to $1.6B federal financing for Kaz Resources. CONFLICT · CABINET
Brandon + Kyle Lutnick Cantor Fitzgerald (father's firm) Raised $210M in new capital for the lead Kaz Resources investors — same deal where Trump sons hold 20% stake via Dominari. Cantor Fitzgerald = SPCX co-manager underwriter (Orbit 5). Two federal roles, one family, two connected deals. CANTOR DUAL ROLE
Kaz Resources US-linked tungsten company, Kazakhstan Major undeveloped tungsten reserve. Federal financing up to $1.6B approved (preliminary, subject to additional approvals). Tungsten = critical for weapons systems, aircraft, chip manufacturing. China dominates global supply — national security rationale used to steer deal. $1.6B FEDERAL FINANCING
Dominari Securities Trump Tower financial advisor DUAL ORBIT FLAG — FIRST CONNECTED HERE: appears in Orbit 8 (Powerus reverse merger transaction advisor) AND Orbit 11 (Kazakhstan Kaz Resources 20% stake). Trump Tower firm acting as financial intermediary for Trump sons across multiple government-adjacent deals simultaneously. DUAL ORBIT FLAG
Legal exposure: Emoluments Clause (foreign government-facilitated deal); Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (Kazakhstani officials on take per Krugman/NYT framing); STOCK Act (if sons received material non-public information on financing timeline). Neither Kazakhstan nor the US government has confirmed the $1.6B is disbursed — preliminary approvals only. National-security tungsten rationale is real; the collision with family financial interests is also real and documented.
Source: NYT: "Trump's Sons Stand to Profit From a Critical Minerals Deal His Administration Helped Advance" (Paul Sonne + Eric Lipton, June 28 2026) · FT: Trump sons invested in US group developing $1.1B tungsten project · Mediaite · Mining.com
ORBIT 12 SCOTUS TRADING WATCH POST-HUMPHREY’S EXECUTOR · JUNE 29 2026

Trump v. Slaughter (June 29, 2026) overturned Humphrey’s Executor — the court that eliminated independent enforcement of financial markets is now itself subject to financial disclosure scrutiny. All nine justices + spouses added to watchlist. Any trade in any sector during an active case involving that company should be flagged immediately.

THOMAS, CLARENCE CRITICAL ProPublica 2023: undisclosed gifts from Harlan Crow $4M+ (real estate, private jet, luxury vacations); Crow holds interests in companies with SCOTUS cases. Ginni Thomas lobbied Jan 6 — texted Meadows. Highest-priority SCOTUS financial disclosure watch.
THOMAS, VIRGINIA (Ginni) CRITICAL Liberty Consulting — clients include entities with SCOTUS cases. Testified Jan 6 committee. Any investment in defense/tech/financial sector cross-referenced with Clarence Thomas recusal record.
ALITO, SAMUEL HIGH ProPublica: undisclosed private jet with Paul Singer (Elliott Management / hedge fund) 2008 — Singer had cases before SCOTUS while Alito did not recuse. Declined Senate Judiciary testimony.
ROBERTS, JOHN (Chief Justice) HIGH Spouse Jane Roberts: $10.3M+ in law firm referral fees 2007-2014; firms argued before SCOTUS. Roberts declined Senate Judiciary interview on recusal. Ruled Trump v. Slaughter 6-3.
GORSUCH, NEIL HIGH WSJ 2022: sold property to Brian Duffy (Greenberg Traurig managing partner) 9 days after Senate confirmation; GT argued before SCOTUS. Anschutz (Colorado energy/media) connection. Ruled Trump v. Slaughter 6-3.
KAVANAUGH, BRETT HIGH Financial disclosures showed $60-200K credit card debt paid off 2006 — never fully explained. Marble Freedom Trust funded confirmation. Ruled Trump v. Slaughter 6-3.
BARRETT, AMY CONEY HIGH Marble Freedom Trust funded confirmation. Notre Dame Law faculty — monitor Notre Dame-adjacent or Catholic health system trades. Ruled Trump v. Slaughter 6-3.
SOTOMAYOR, SONIA MEDIUM Standard watch. Book income (monitor publishing/media). No undisclosed gift pattern documented.
KAGAN, ELENA MEDIUM Standard watch. No undisclosed gift or trade pattern documented.
JACKSON, KETANJI BROWN MEDIUM Spouse Patrick Jackson = Harvard-trained vascular surgeon. Monitor biotech/pharma/medical device trades given healthcare sector SCOTUS cases. Standard watch otherwise.
WATCHLIST STATUS: All 9 justices + spouses added to detector watchlist June 30, 2026. Financial disclosures filed annually under Judicial Conference rules (not Form 4). Any detectable trade in company with active/pending SCOTUS case = IMMEDIATE FLAG. Cross-reference: Thomas/Crow, Alito/Singer, Roberts/Jane placement fees, Gorsuch/Duffy property sale. Source: ProPublica Supreme Court ethics series (2023-2026) · Senate Judiciary Committee investigation 2023.
DETECTION METHOD — THE CLUSTER EFFECT
  1. Identify a Policy Event date on the dashboard.
  2. Search for partner-level donations or stock sales from Kirkland, Jones Day, or Skadden within 48 hours of that date.
  3. Cross-reference those partners with Major, Lindsey & Africa recruitment placements in the same quarter.
Signal: A law firm partner selling tech stocks the day before a tariff announcement, while their firm represents the affected company = documented institutional front-running.
DOCUMENTED — OIL FUTURES & POLYMARKET FRONT-RUNNING
$3.2B in Suspicious Oil Shorts + Polymarket Insider Trades — Five for Five
DateTradeEvent (minutes later)Est. Profit
Jun 3, 2026Kalshi WTI >$93.99 — 6.6× spike, 1,676 tradesQeshm Island strikes (pre-event)est. $50M+
May 7, 2026 03:40$920M crude shortAxios Iran peace report (+70 min)~$125M
Apr 17, 2026$750M crude shortIran FM: Hormuz open (+20 min)est. $90M+
Apr 7, 2026$950M crude shortTrump ceasefire announcementest. $115M+
Mar 23, 2026$580M crude shortTrump pauses strikes (+15 min)est. $70M+
Polymarket: Mystery Iran trader (~$1M, 93% win rate) · "Magamyman" ($553K on Ali Khamenei death) · MSgt Gannon Ken Van Dyke (arrested: $400K on Maduro capture using classified intel) · Donald Trump Jr. is adviser to Polymarket; 1789 Capital invested millions in platform.
LIVE DATA

Law Firm Partner Donations — Near Policy Events (30 scored · 8 cluster flags)

FEC employer-based search: $10,000+ donations within ±30 days of key policy events. Pre-event weighted 2×. CLUSTER = donor also appears in insider trades near same event.

A&O Shearman — merger note: Allen & Overy and Shearman & Sterling merged in May 2023 to form A&O Shearman. FEC records filed under legacy names (pre-merger) predate all tracked policy events (earliest: Mar 2025) and score 0. One pattern flagged: BASKIN, STUART (Shearman & Sterling) — 3× $10K donations, 11–13 days after China Tariff Wave 2 (EXTREME severity). Post-event timing is consistent with a firm positioning after tariff policy crystallized (trade & sanctions practice). No A&O Shearman-era donations (post-May 2023, filed under new name) returned from FEC — data gap or low filing rate under new brand.
ScoreFirmDonor / RoleAmountDateCommitteeTimingPolicy Event
420Kirkland & EllisLEVY, JENNIFER
ATTORNEY
$30,000 (3 contributions summed)2025-10-01ACTBLUE0d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
407Steptoe & JohnsonESSERMAN, SUSAN GAYLE ESQ.
ATTORNEY
$30,000 (3 contributions summed)2026-04-28DEMOCRATIC STATE CENTRAL COM1d BEFORE eventLouisiana v. Callais (VRA)
394Quinn EmanuelTAYBACK, CHRISTOPHER
ATTORNEY
$12,0002026-04-27ACTBLUE2d BEFORE eventLouisiana v. Callais (VRA)
393Jones DayANTHONY, REBECCA
ATTORNEY
$10,0002026-04-27TALARICO FOR TEXAS2d BEFORE eventLouisiana v. Callais (VRA)
393Kirkland & EllisFILIP, MARK RCLUSTER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002025-09-29PETE RICKETTS VICTORY FUND2d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
393Steptoe & JohnsonBELCHER, LESLIE A.CLUSTER
PUBLIC POLICY
$20,000 (2 contributions summed)2025-03-31NRCC2d BEFORE eventLiberation Day Tariffs
367Kirkland & EllisPERL, SANFORD
ATTORNEY
$142,000 (5 contributions summed)2025-03-29YOUNG VICTORY COMMITTEE4d BEFORE eventLiberation Day Tariffs
327Kirkland & EllisPORTER, RICHARD W. MR.
PARTNER
$73,330 (5 contributions summed)2025-09-24EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS7d BEFORE eventChina Rare Earth Export Controls
324Gibson DunnPOLLACK, JOHN M.CLUSTER
PARTNER
$223,900 (5 contributions summed)2026-03-23HOUSE VICTORY PROJECT 20260d BEFORE eventTrump Pauses Iran Strikes
323Wiley ReinSHIELDS, PETERCLUSTER
ATTORNEY
$44,3002026-05-04DSCC0d BEFORE eventSCOTUS Expedited Map Order
320Kirkland & EllisCHAMP, NORMAN B. III
LAWYER
$245,900 (9 contributions summed)2026-03-23GROW THE MAJORITY0d BEFORE eventTrump Pauses Iran Strikes
312Latham & WatkinsEDWARDS, LINDA
LAWYER
$20,0002026-05-03TEAM RAND1d BEFORE eventSCOTUS Expedited Map Order
310Sidley AustinLEWIS, KEVINCLUSTER
ATTORNEY
$10,0002026-05-20TALARICO VICTORY FUND1d BEFORE eventCRML-REalloys 15-Year Offtake Signe
302Sullivan & CromwellCOHEN, HENRY RODGIN
ATTORNEY
$57,000 (3 contributions summed)2026-05-19JFW FUND2d BEFORE eventCRML-REalloys 15-Year Offtake Signe
281Quinn EmanuelBURCK, WILLIAM
LAWYER
$80,974 (4 contributions summed)2025-05-08ONE TEAM SENATE MAJORITY4d BEFORE eventChina 90-Day Tariff Suspension
273Quinn EmanuelBUNGE, JON C.CLUSTER
ATTORNEY
$352,300 (7 contributions summed)2026-04-02DSCC5d BEFORE eventIran Ceasefire Announced
260Kirkland & EllisBENTLEY, JASON
ATTORNEY
$10,0002026-02-09REPUBLICAN PARTY OF KENTUCKY0d BEFORE eventKeane Joins REalloys Board
257Gibson DunnLEVINE, MEL
ATTORNEY
$250,0002026-05-14NEW ERA LEADERSHIP7d BEFORE eventCRML-REalloys 15-Year Offtake Signe
256Kirkland & EllisFARRELL, MICHAEL
ATTORNEY
$250,000 (5 contributions summed)2026-04-21MICHAEL FARRELL FOR UTAH1d BEFORE eventPalantir $2.1B Iran Contract
254Latham & WatkinsCLUBOK, ANDREW
LAWYER
$132,900 (6 contributions summed)2025-10-31ACTBLUE1d BEFORE eventPolymarket 1789 Capital / Trump Jr.
254Kirkland & EllisBROWN, REGINALD J.CLUSTER
LAWYER
$341,300 (8 contributions summed)2026-03-31GROW THE MAJORITY7d BEFORE eventIran Ceasefire Announced
228Jones DayLIEBMAN, HOWARD MCLUSTER
ATTORNEY
$40,000 (2 contributions summed)2026-03-11VOTEVETS4d BEFORE eventCFTC Staff Culling — Berdansky/Varm
224Kirkland & EllisRITCHIE, STEPHEN
ATTORNEY
$80,000 (3 contributions summed)2026-02-04AFFORDABLE CHICAGO NOW! (ACN5d BEFORE eventKeane Joins REalloys Board
220Sullivan & CromwellCOHEN, H. RODGIN
SENIOR CHAIRMAN
$10,0002026-03-25SCHIFF VICTORY FUND5d BEFORE eventKasper Named REalloys Advisory Boar
216Gibson DunnBOUTROUS, THEODORE
ATTORNEY
$100,000 (2 contributions summed)2026-03-09DCCC6d BEFORE eventCFTC Staff Culling — Berdansky/Varm
204Quinn EmanuelBUNGE, JONATHAN C SR
LAWYER
$153,900 (6 contributions summed)2026-02-02DNC SERVICES CORP / DEMOCRAT7d BEFORE eventKeane Joins REalloys Board
200Jones DayMCGAHN, DONALD
nan
$20,000 (2 contributions summed)2025-03-21NRSC12d BEFORE eventLiberation Day Tariffs
182Quinn EmanuelHRANITZKY, DENNIS
ATTORNEY
$144,289 (2 contributions summed)2026-05-12DEMOCRATIC GRASSROOTS VICTOR9d BEFORE eventCRML-REalloys 15-Year Offtake Signe
171Kirkland & EllisGESSNER, DOUGLAS
LAWYER
$60,000 (5 contributions summed)2025-02-24GROW THE MAJORITY10d BEFORE eventBitcoin Reserve EO
149Skadden ArpsSUNSHINE, STEVE
ATTORNEY
$44,3002026-01-31DCCC9d BEFORE eventKeane Joins REalloys Board
Source: FEC OpenFEC API · orbit_law_firm_scan.py · Deduplicated July 18, 2026: one row per donor per firm, multiple FEC contributions summed and counted (previously one row per contribution, which repeated the same donor up to 10×) · Under review — not published
The Architecture Mapped — Click Any Zone to Read the Investigation
The Scaffolding Is The Story — infographic mapping the financial architecture of the Iran war