The Mountain Pass Trades

There is only one active, large-scale rare earth mine in the United States.

It sits at Mountain Pass, California, in the Mojave Desert, operated by MP Materials Corp. From that single location flows the neodymium and praseodymium — NdPr, in the trade — that goes into the permanent magnets that go into the F-35, the Tomahawk missile, the Patriot launcher, the Starlink satellite, the electric vehicle motor, and the drone interceptor. The magnets that make things spin, orient, propel, and guide.

Every advanced weapons system in the U.S. arsenal. Every satellite in orbit. Every drone in the war over the Strait of Hormuz. All of them dependent, in some degree, on what comes out of Mountain Pass.

James H. Litinsky is the Chairman and CEO of MP Materials. His estimated net worth is at least $625 million as of June 9, 2026, built almost entirely from his stake in the company.

He has made 19 insider transactions in MP Materials over five years. All 19 are sells. He has never bought a single share on the open market.

In the VELOCITY dashboard at theyknewfirst.com, James Litinsky now holds the highest suspicion score of any entity in the entire dataset — 29 out of 20 possible points, on a single trade placed April 20, 2026, flagged as SALE, LARGE, MEGA, CORP DONOR, SAME DAY, IRAN CONFLICT, EXTREME EVENT, and LIQUIDATION. View Dashboard →

That is not a coincidence score. That is a pattern score.

The Trade Record

The transactions are documented in SEC Form 4 filings. The sequence is as follows.

On January 7–8, 2026 — the week the Iran war was being architected in back-channels and the DoD-MP Materials partnership was not yet public — Litinsky sold 300,000 shares of MP common stock for $19.2 million.

On May 27–29, 2026, Litinsky sold 400,000 shares through his revocable trust in multiple tranches at prices in the mid-$60 range. No Rule 10b5-1 trading plan is mentioned in the filing.

On June 3, 2026, he sold 185,167 additional shares for approximately $13 million — bringing his total documented sales in the spring 2026 window to over $46 million.

The VELOCITY dashboard Dashboard → flags the April 20 trade at 29/20 — the highest score in the dataset — correlated to the policy event logged as: "Congress STOCK Act Late Filings: Defense/Energy Trades Undisclosed During Iran War Period."

The May 27 trade scores 25/20, correlated to: "Trump threatens to 'blow up' U.S. ally Oman at cabinet meeting if it participates in joint Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz management — direct threat against OXY Block 53 operational territory." Iran Tab →

The May 13 trade scores 24/20, correlated to: "Trump administration offers $100 million aid to Cuba in exchange for reforms amid U.S. oil blockade."

Three separate trades. Three separate policy events. Each trade placed in a window where advance knowledge of U.S. strategic positioning on the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf energy infrastructure, and critical minerals supply chain would be material to MP Materials' stock price.

Date	Value	Shares	Score	Nearest Policy Event
Jan 7–8, 2026	$19.2M	300,000	—	Iran war being architected in back-channels; DoD-MP partnership not yet public
Apr 17, 2026	$2.6M	40,821	23	Greenland gov't approves CRML 92.5% Tanbreez stake — world's largest undeveloped heavy REE deposit (dysprosium, terbium)
Apr 20, 2026	$16.6M	259,179	29★	Congress STOCK Act Late Filings: Defense/Energy trades undisclosed during Iran War period — EXTREME severity
May 12, 2026	$1.3M	19,844	25	Iran ceasefire "on massive life support" — Trump ultimatum issued
May 13, 2026	$6.1M	93,959	24	Trump offers $100M aid to Cuba amid U.S. oil blockade — SANCTIONS
May 27–29, 2026	$6.3M (est.)	~95,000	25	Trump threatens to "blow up" Oman at cabinet meeting — direct threat vs. OXY Block 53 / Strait of Hormuz corridor. NO 10b5-1 PLAN FILED.
Jun 3, 2026	~$13M	185,167	25	BYD/Alibaba/Baidu designated Chinese military companies — next-phase rare earth decoupling trigger

What He Was Selling

To understand why the timing matters, you need to understand what MP Materials is.

The Department of Defense entered into a 10-year agreement with MP Materials establishing a price floor commitment of $110 per kilogram for MP's NdPr products — reducing vulnerability to non-market forces and ensuring stable, predictable cash flow. DoD is positioned to become the company's largest shareholder through convertible preferred equity, warrants, and loans totaling a multibillion-dollar package.

For a period of 10 years following construction of the 10X Facility, DoD agreed to ensure that 100% of the magnets produced at the facility will be purchased by defense and commercial customers.

The deal required MP to terminate its Shenghe offtake agreement by 2026 — severing its Chinese distribution partner — and commit over $600 million of its own capital, with $1 billion in commercial financing from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs dedicated to the 10X Facility construction.

In plain language: the U.S. government has made MP Materials its designated national champion for rare earth supply chain independence. The DoD is the anchor customer, the price floor guarantor, and the incoming largest shareholder. The company has a legally protected revenue stream, a $1.25 billion Texas manufacturing campus under construction, and a Wall Street consensus price target of $80.14 per share.

JPMorgan, which led the DoD transaction, described MP as "the only U.S. champion" in rare earth materials — approached specifically by the DoD when China weaponized rare earth magnets against the U.S. after Liberation Day tariffs broke down trade negotiations.

Against that backdrop — a government-guaranteed price floor, a 10-year offtake commitment, and an incoming DoD equity stake — the CEO sold over $46 million in stock in a four-month window during an active war that makes rare earth supply chain independence more strategically critical than at any point in American history.

The SpaceX Connection

Financial analysts are now aggressively positioning MP Materials as a primary "picks and shovels" play ahead of the SpaceX IPO. High-performance rare earth magnets are vital for stabilizing satellite propulsion and electronic orientation — and SpaceX operates over 10,000 Starlink satellites with plans for vast expansion to support enterprise AI workloads. MP's 10X facility in Texas is being framed by analysts as a fundamental national security anchor.

The supply chain flows directly: Mountain Pass mine → separated NdPr oxide → Fort Worth / 10X Facility → rockets, satellites, AI hardware.

SpaceX prices its IPO on June 11. It begins trading June 12.

June 12 is also the day FISA 702 expires.

That collision is not incidental. Starlink is not a consumer product awaiting a quiet market debut. It is active military infrastructure operating in the Iran war theater right now — tracking Iranian missile launches, relaying targeting data, threading communications through contested airspace over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran Tab → The company going public while its satellites are doing war work is the story. The geopolitical chaos of the last 48 hours is not a distraction from the SpaceX IPO. It is the roadshow.

SpaceX's $1.8 trillion offering is being marketed to institutional investors as the foundational infrastructure layer for orbital AI computing. The Google lock-in at $920 million per month for 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs running Gemini Enterprise confirms the revenue model. But that infrastructure only functions if the satellites maintain their orbital orientation. That orientation depends on permanent magnets. Those magnets come from MP Materials.

Gibson Dunn is the legal architecture underneath both the IPO and Polymarket — the same firm that structured the prediction market disclosures now shepherding the SpaceX offering through the window. The dual representation is documented. The implications are not yet fully mapped.

Litinsky sold $46 million of MP stock in the weeks before the SpaceX IPO roadshow positioned his company as the indispensable materials layer beneath the largest IPO in U.S. history. June 12 is worth watching.

The Secondary Pattern: Rosenthal and the Executive Cluster

James Litinsky is not the only MP Materials insider selling into the Iran conflict window.

Michael Stuart Rosenthal is the Chief Operating Officer of MP Materials. He sold $10.8 million worth of MP stock on August 29, 2025 — 41 days before China's rare earth export controls were announced on October 9, 2025. The same controls that made MP Materials indispensable. The same controls that validated the DoD's national champion designation. Rosenthal sold before that validation became public.

On January 13, 2026, Rosenthal sold another $579,677. On May 20, 2026 — in the active Iran conflict window, during a period when MP Materials' strategic value was unambiguous to anyone with policy access — Rosenthal made a transaction of $962,540. The VELOCITY dashboard scores that trade at 16/20, flagged SAME DAY, MILITARY, IRAN CONFLICT, EXTREME EVT. Suspects #103 →

On June 9, 2026 — the day after Trump announced the Iran deal was "pretty much all wrapped up" and crude fell 4.2% — Rosenthal purchased 10,000 shares at $54.30 ($543K). He sold into the conflict. He bought on the peace announcement. The directional logic is exact.

The pattern extends beyond the two top executives. Elliot Dean Hoops (CFO) sold five tranches between January and May 2026 totaling approximately $2.2 million. Ryan Corbett sold multiple tranches in the same window totaling over $7 million. David Gregory Infuso sold across three dates from January to April 2026. Every named executive with a public Form 4 record at MP Materials during the Iran war period has a net sell position.

Insider	Role	Key Sale	Amount	Score / Flags
James H. Litinsky	Chairman / CEO	Apr 20, 2026	$16.6M	29★ — SALE LARGE MEGA CORP DONOR SAME DAY IRAN CONFLICT EXTREME EVT LIQUIDATION
Michael S. Rosenthal	COO	May 20, 2026	$962,540	16/20 — SAME DAY MILITARY IRAN CONFLICT EXTREME EVT
Michael S. Rosenthal	COO	Aug 29, 2025	$10.8M	41 days before China REE export controls — pre-policy sale
Elliot Dean Hoops	CFO	Jan–May 2026	~$2.2M	5 tranches — all sells — Iran conflict window
Ryan Corbett	Executive	Dec 2025–May 2026	~$7M	Multiple tranches — all sells

Outside counsel for MP Materials is Goodwin Procter LLP, confirmed via S-8 Exhibit 5.1 filed February 26, 2026. The firm's Washington DC office signed the legal opinion registering 3.5 million shares under the 2020 Stock Incentive Plan — the same plan under which these executive share transactions are occurring.

The company whose executives are selling in coordinated tranches across the entire Iran war window is the one the U.S. government has designated as the national champion for supply chain independence. The CEO scores 29/20. The COO scores 16/20. The CFO has five sell tranches with no open-market buys. The outside counsel's legal opinion covers the share pool they are liquidating.

The BYD Signal

On June 9, 2026 — the same day Litinsky's Form 4 filings were being analyzed — the U.S. government designated BYD, Alibaba, and Baidu as Chinese military companies, triggering a new wave of export controls and investment restrictions.

BYD is the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer. Its motors run on rare earth permanent magnets. Its supply chain — like that of virtually every major EV and advanced technology manufacturer — has historically relied on Chinese rare earth processing.

The BYD military designation does not just restrict investment. It signals the next phase of rare earth supply chain decoupling. Every EV manufacturer, drone contractor, defense prime, and satellite operator now faces accelerated pressure to source materials from non-Chinese suppliers.

There is one active, large-scale rare earth mine in the United States. Not hard to follow what that means for MP Materials and James Litinsky.

The CEO sold $46 million of its stock in the four months before this designation.

What the Form 4 Record Shows

The STOCK Act requires members of Congress and certain executive branch officials to disclose securities transactions within 45 days. It does not apply to corporate executives.

Litinsky is a corporate insider. He is governed by SEC Section 16, which requires Form 4 filings within two business days of a transaction.

The VELOCITY dashboard's Dashboard → correlation tag on the April 20 trade — flagged against the policy event "Congress STOCK Act Late Filings: Defense/Energy Trades Undisclosed During Iran War Period" — identifies that the trade clusters with a documented period during which Congressional and executive branch officials were filing their own disclosures late. The flag marks a timing overlap, not a legal obligation on Litinsky's part. He is not subject to the STOCK Act. His relevant obligation is Form 4 timeliness under SEC rules, and the precision of his filing timestamps against the EDGAR record is a separate question warranting verification.

What is documented without ambiguity: four trades, four policy event correlations, scores of 29/20, 25/20, 25/20, and 24/20. No 10b5-1 plan mentioned in the May 27–29 filing. Nineteen lifetime sells. Zero lifetime buys.

The Questions

The record supports the following questions, which have not been asked in any major publication:

1. Did James Litinsky receive any advance communication — formal or informal, from the DoD, the NSC, the State Department, or the White House — about U.S. strategic positioning on the Strait of Hormuz, rare earth supply chain policy, or the BYD military designation timeline, prior to executing any of the four flagged trades?
2. Was the April 20 trade executed under a Rule 10b5-1 plan? If no plan was in place, the trade is presumptively discretionary under SEC Rule 10b-5. EDGAR filing timestamps should be examined to confirm whether the Form 4 was filed within the two-business-day window required under Section 16.
3. The May 27–29 filing explicitly notes no 10b5-1 plan. Trump's threat to "blow up" Oman — the country that hosts OXY's Block 53 and serves as the logistical corridor for Pakistan-mediated Iran negotiations — was correlated on the same date. Was Litinsky aware of that threat before the market?
4. MP Materials is DoD's designated national champion for rare earth supply chain independence. The CEO has sold $46 million in stock during an active war that makes that designation more valuable, not less. At what point does a pattern of 19 sells and zero buys, across multiple policy-correlated windows, become a disclosure obligation under the material nonpublic information standard?
5. Litinsky donated to corporate PACs tracked in the VELOCITY donation database. What is the complete timeline of his political donation activity relative to the four flagged trades? Donor Records →

The Broader Frame

The Mountain Pass trades are not the anomaly in this dataset. They are the confirmation.

The VELOCITY record now documents 3,652 same-day donation-trade matches worth $9.32 billion. The crude oil front-running pattern — $3.2 billion across five events — remains under active CFTC and DOJ investigation with the trader still unidentified. The Malta cluster traced the revolving door from corporate tax architecture to Treasury appointment to OECD policy. The Gibson Dunn dual-representation connects the prediction market to the IPO.

In every case, the same architecture: advance knowledge of a policy decision → financial positioning before the announcement → a public record that documents the correlation without yet naming the mechanism.

Litinsky is different in one respect. He is not obscured behind an offshore entity or an anonymous options position. His name is on the Form 4. His trust is named in the filing. His trade dates are timestamped against a public event calendar that the VELOCITY database has been building since Day One. Dashboard →

MP Materials represents the build-up of rare earth industrial capability that was lost to Asia in the early 2000s and has yet to be fully rebuilt anywhere in the West. The government has spent billions to make that happen. It has guaranteed the price floor, committed to the offtake, and positioned itself as the largest shareholder.

The CEO sold $46 million while the war that made his company indispensable was running.

There is only one active, large-scale rare earth mine in the United States.

Someone should ask why its CEO couldn't stop selling it.